Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
